2026 Holyrood vote could deliver ‘upset’ with rising support for Reform UK
Next year’s Holyrood elections could “deliver something of an upset” pollsters have said, amid rising support from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
When it comes to the regional list vote for the Scottish Parliament, experts at the Scottish Election Study found that Reform UK are now tied in second place with Labour.
While there is still more than a year to go until the election, a poll carried out by the Scottish Election Study showed the SNP “firmly in the lead” in the constituency section of the ballot, with a third of voters (33%) planning to vote for John Swinney’s party, once those who do not know and those who will not vote are removed.
Labour were second on the constituency ballot on 18%, marginally ahead of Reform on 17%.
The Conservatives, currently the second largest party at Holyrood, were fourth in the constituency section, on 12%, with the Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Scottish Greens on 7%
When it comes to the regional list vote the SNP were in front on 30%, ahead of both Labour and Reform, who were tied for second on 18%.
Support for the Scottish Conservatives on this section of the ballot was also at 12%, with the Greens on 10% and Liberal Democrats on 9%
According to the research almost a third of those who voted for the Tories in the 2021 Holyrood election could switch and back Reform.
Experts at the Scottish Election Study said that support for Mr Farage’s party was rising and was rising “particularly high” among men and lower class voters.
Reform was said to be “drawing support particularly among former Conservative voters”, with supporters of Reform UK placing themselves “to the right of all other parties”. They were also “most likely to oppose immigration”.
Our data show that Reform are attracting Scottish voters who were previously under-served by the political choices on offer
Dr Fraser McMillan from the University of Edinburgh said: “Our data show that Reform are attracting Scottish voters who were previously under-served by the political choices on offer.
“While the party might have difficulty appealing beyond those who are already convinced, their current supporters appear likely to stick with the party into May 2026.”
Speaking about the poll, for which 1,200 people were questioned, Professor Ailsa Henderson of Edinburgh University, said: “On these figures though, the 2026 election looks like it will deliver something of an upset.”
Prof Henderson, the principal investigator for the Scottish Election Study, said Scotland had “long been a bit of a conundrum” with an “electorate possessing some small-c conservative attitudes that profoundly dislikes its own Conservative Party”.
Here, she said, there were signs that “Reform is not saddled with the same negative evaluations that limit Conservative support”.
She added: “That said, Reform’s commitment to airing typically English grievances with the union, and their unpopular leader in Scotland, could act as future drags on support in Scotland.”
